6.1. Introduction

A framework is presented in the foregoing chapters with which Multimedia Retrieval Systems (MRSs) for Marketing & Sales (M&S) are characterised, and hypotheses on the viability of these systems are formulated and tested. If we now return to the main research question what is the viability of MRSs for M&S, can a satisfactory answer been given to this and related questions?

Is multimedia (MM) only a hype, a self-fulfilling prophecy or has it really value added for MRSs for M&S (section 2.3.), and MM Retrieval (MR) technology (section 6.3.)? Are there MM specific critical success/risk factors for MRSs for M&S, and are these systems effective or perceived as such (section 6.5.), and are they then viable (section 6.6.)?

This chapter is concluded with a discussion of further research issues and speculations on future developments when service economies are transforming into information economies, economies in which more than half of the GNP is produced by information processing activities.

6.2. Towards a new MM paradigm

Has MM value added for MRSs for M&S or is it just hype? On the basis of the consistent responses of experts and other subjects in the field, it can be concluded that MM is perceived consistently to have value added for M&S, for MM Business Catalogues, MM teleshopping and tele-ordering, MM promotion, MM Assisted Instruction, and many other M&S applications. These perceptions are consistent with the MM paradigm that adding MM to ISs leads to an improved information and knowledge transfer to people, and hypothesis (H1) naturally following the multimedia paradigm, stating that MM has value added for M&S in situations where effective information and knowledge transfer is needed. On the basis of these perceptions alone we can conclude that the idea that an MM paradigm exists is supported, however, we cannot conclude with certainty that MM really has value added. In fact, we can easily falsify the MM paradigm, the MM paradigm is too optimistic: if MM is used wrongly, incongruently etc., it certainly has a negative value added, it certainly does not lead to improved information and knowledge transfer! Thus, a paradigm shift is needed since the current MM paradigm is in many cases clearly invalid. In what direction should we look for a new MM paradigm?

If we just look at the positive, general attitude with respect to MM, we can interpret this positive attitude towards MM in four alternative ways, leading to four alternative paradigms:

1. MM is statistically significantly believed to have a considerable value added for M&S, but this is definitely not true, MM has hardly any effect at all, it is only a hype;

2. MM is statistically significantly believed to have a considerable value added for M&S, but this value added, insofar present, is based solely on the positive attitude with regard to MM, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy;

3. MM is statistically significantly believed to have a considerable value added for M&S, but this is only partially true: it is more than just a self-fulfilling prophecy, it has entertainment value, but nothing more;

4. MM is statistically significantly believed to have a considerable value added for M&S, and this is true, because it can, if well applied, account also for an improved information and knowledge transfer to people in M&S situations.

Can we falsify some of these four statements on the basis of data gathered? The first statements, that MM has definitely no real value added and that it is only a self-fulfilling prophecy, can be falsified on the basis of:

• consistent research (see chapter 4) indicating that people experience MM as fun, as enjoyable, and that MM makes it more exciting to learn;

• the observation that MM games with audio and video are experienced as more attractive to players, than non-MM games.

• learning experiments made clear that adding MM elements - if the information types are used congruently, an adequate use is made of reference models, a high level of interactivity is offered, and a sufficient quality is used for information representation - improves information and knowledge transfer to people in some learning situations, but not always(!);

• MM information, presented congruently, is better recalled than monomedia information;

• tasks with an object recognition component are performed better when adequate visual representations are used instead of only descriptions or vague pictures.
 

Further, indirect evidence for the value added of MM is based on the fact that MRSs for M&S are evaluated as effective in terms of meeting business objectives (see section 6.5.).

On the basis of this argumentation, it can be concluded that MM is not just a hype, it has all the elements of a self-fulfilling prophecy, which does not imply that it is ineffective, it has a distinct entertainment value, and, if carefully applied, sometimes seems to contribute to more effective information and knowledge transfer, which is valuable for many M&S situations. This can form the basis of a more realistic new MM paradigm.

6.3. Has MR value added?

The question if MR has value added (see H2) seems at first sight less controversial than the similar question with regard to the value added of MM; however, the degree to which improved searching and improved database management contributes to improved M&S office work depends on many variables other than the quality of retrieval systems presented.

If business objectives can be met by MRSs for M&S, unrelated to improving retrieval and improving database management, the minimum value added of MR technology is still that it is a necessary, facilitating technology to realise retrieval of MM information from local or remote data sources. Just using MR technology is certainly not sufficient for realising a certain business value added!

Let us review the evidence pointing in the direction that MR improves retrieval performance:

• retrieval contributes to a tremendous improvement in search and database management performance, as is observed in all situations where very large collections of information need to be searched, in particular libraries and archives (e.g., the MCA and MDA);

• retrieval by pictures is reported to enhance photo selection when searching photographs in the IECT photo archive (see chapter 3), the effectiveness is illustrated by "what you see is what you retrieve";

• retrieval facilities including hyperlinking, search fields, history functions for backtracking, full text searching, menus and browsers were perceived by an M&S panel to improve the retrieval interface of M&S systems, both for user interfaces used by customers and M&S personnel; only browsers were not seen significantly as necessary for promotional use.

6.4. Are there MM specific critical success/risk factors for MRS for M&S?

I hypothesised that there is a number of success/risk factors critical to the viability of MRSs for M&S (H4). The idea that there are no critical success/factors can be falsified on the basis of the fact that system development projects do fail because of factors like lack of management commitment, too high developments costs, no acceptable Return On Investment etc. In the sphere of MRSs for M&S, I observed some failures due to, for example, to poor project preparation and poor definition of business objectives of an MM kiosk. By the way, one can often notice MM kiosks in shops which are completely neglected by the public, whilst others are used more frequently. Case research (see chapter 3), and a survey of MM projects (see chapter 4) made clear that many of success/risk factors are perceived to be critical, and that most of these are also relevant to projects outside the scope of this research.

The relevance of certain MM specific success/risk factors was tested by quantitative surveys (see chapter 5) of MM projects and MM teleshopping investors. The results of these confirmed the idea that there are a number of success/risk factors strongly seen as MM specific, these are: complexity of MM systems due to the integration of multiple types of media, scarcity of MM expertise at the offset of the MM boom, too little standardisation of MM products, the innovative image of MM, and competitive advantage: whether competitors are providing MM services to their customers. It can be argued that these, and probably some other not yet identified, MM specific success/risk factors can be highly critical for the viability of MRSs for M&S.

A longitudinal study is necessary to obtain a better idea of the weight and significance of the presence or absence of certain success/risk factors for system viability, this would be of great interest.

Nevertheless, the lists of success/risk factors and MM specific factors are already useful as a checklist to identify potential threats for system viability.

To conclude, it seems reasonable to assume that there is a large number of success/risk factors, like availability of multidisciplinary expertise, insight into target group and ease of use, that can be critical for the viability of MRSs for M&S, and that some of these are MM specific, but presumably only to a limited degree.

6.5. Are MRSs for M&S effective?

There are strong positive indications that specific MRSs for M&S are effective in meeting M&S business objectives, most of these systems are, at least, perceived as effective by the majority of respondents: researchers, project leaders, M&S staff, and service providers (hypothesis H5). The qualitative analysis, in chapter 3, of cases made clear that several MRSs for M&S, such as a Marketing Communications Archive, Tele Sales Assistant system, Multimedia Promotion System, and Multimedia Assisted Instruction system are strongly perceived as effective in meeting their respective M&S business objectives. These objectives for MRSs are related to improving or better defending a market position, improving the quality of service to customers, improving promotion effectiveness, saving M&S costs or improving the M&S productivity, improved information and knowledge transfer, and improved management insight in archiving costs.

Expert surveys, in chapter 5, showed that an MBC and an MPS in the form of a promotional CD-i, are perceived as effective. But are MRSs effective? On the basis of a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Return On Investment (ROI) computation we can reject the hypothesis that MRSs are never effective: the IECT photo archive (an MCA) showed a ROI of 900% (!), a tele-ordering MBC was effective in 5 out of 6 of the sketched situations, and one MAI described in the literature showed has also been shown to be economic (Kustermans, 1991; see chapter 3).

A qualitative analysis showed that the Virtual Market is the most ambitious and potentially the most effective MRS for M&S, as it offers an integrated platform for many VM services for many market parties and is able to meet all possible M&S business objectives to a relatively large degree. At the same time, the VM is the most risky investment, as it requires large investment in information infrastructures as yet not present. A survey of current and potential teleshop service providers, whose services can run eventually in a VM, showed that it is believed it would be economically effective, i.e., meet ROI requirements, in about 10 years from now. Thus, a full fledged VM, depending on the information services it provides, will probably be only effective after about the same time.

It is very alarming that in most projects surveyed no serious effort was made to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of MRS for M&S. Some of the explanations for this is that it is very difficult to perform a reasonable effectiveness evaluation, that it is relatively too expensive for small projects, and that relatively little IT evaluation expertise is present within R&D environments, software development firms, and M&S environments.

Although CBAs and ROI computations have their limitations, such IT evaluation methods are useful to identify the real benefits for systems under development. Even if benefits are hard to quantify, hardly reliable and have little validity, such measures are better than nothing!

Most researched MRSs for M&S are perceived as effective, but only in a very few cases is an IT evaluation attempt made. CBA, as part of this research, showed that an MCA and an MBC for tele-ordering can be economically effective. The potential effectiveness of tele-ordering systems is great.

6.6. What is the viability of MRSs for M&S?

Let us now return to my main research question, what is the viability of MRSs for M&S, to see if a satisfactory answer can be given to this question on the basis of the results of this research.

There are some strong indications that MRSs for M&S are viable, and that this viability increases with time:

• During my research I hit upon a large number of cases, a number of which are described in chapter 3, of MRSs that were able to survive under business conditions, that were actually in use, sometimes for longer, sometimes for shorter times. Thus, MRSs have a certain level of viability today, which varies from case to case from 0% to 100%.

• MM teleshop services are perceived as viable by Videotex information providers, and other suppliers, in the middle term (in about 5 years from 1994) or at least in the long term (in about 10 years from 1994); these perceptions are very consistent, and can be interpreted as a predictor of future viability. The validity of this predictor is uncertain of course, although the convergent validity, the correlation of outcomes with market forecasts, is high.

• MM experts see MM teleshopping and MM telemarketing as increasingly important for the business of a telecommunication company; after about 5 years (about 1999) it was estimated 'important'; however, on a retest the judgement was only 'neutral' (see chapter 5).

• There are positive indications from market research about the growth of retrieval technology, MM, Points Of Sale, interactive TV, etc.

• MRSs are perceived as effective and some are clearly economically effective (see section 6.5.) and this is a positive indication of system viability;

• MM has a certain value added which can contribute to the viability of ISs, because MM is perceived to be effective and increases the entertainment value and probably the information impact of ISs (see section 2.3.)!

To conclude, there are strong indications that the viability of MRSs for M&S in general, increases with time; specific examples can be found of MRSs for M&S that are able to survive business conditions now, but Virtual Market related MRSs such as MM teleshopping and MM tele-ordering systems are not viable today, but are estimated to be viable within 5-10 years. Specific MRSs for M&S are only viable if identified success/risk factors are coped with, the value added of MM and MR is well understood, and significant business objectives are met!

6.7. Further research issues

The research approach followed to tackle the viability of MRSs for M&S problem led to insight into the research domain, and many suggestions for improvements of specific MRSs (see chapter 3). At the current point, insight into system effectiveness and system viability of specific MRSs can be improved by:

• surveying consumer responses, already decided on in the context of market pilots of MRSs related to the VM concept;

• approximating true experimental conditions in in vivo business settings, and not only with regard to learning effectiveness; in case of the TSA system a Two Group Pretest Post-test Design was conceived, but uncontrollable variables like the effects of a huge marketing campaign to stimulate telephone ordering could not be 'eliminated' by the design;

• improving the reliability of some underperforming tests (CD-i, MBC) by increasing the sample and/or increasing the number of items measuring the same variable;

• longitudinal research to observe the real viability of the Virtual Market, to answer some of the questions still unanswered: what is the predictive validity of our predictors of system effectiveness and viability?;

• using success/risk factors to confront very large samples (n > 1000) with statements about the relevance of these factors; the most important ones can be used to put together some kind of a 'stress test' for MR projects, a 'viability threat scale';

• extending the framework with identified business objectives, critical success factors, and IT evaluation elements to identify significant business opportunities and to measure critical viability threats.

What are the implications of the findings? One significant implication of this research is that the MM paradigm should be firmly rejected in favour of a more realistic approach with regard to the business value added of MM and MR, and the effectiveness and viability of MRSs for M&S.

Further, we can speculate that MM service providers and information providers that want to survive service competition, and growing information competition in the next century, will have to prepare themselves for the VM, which may make use of the fast growing and commercialising Internet infrastructure.

If we assume that viability indications are good predictors of the future viability of MRSs for M&S, it can be argued that a full-grown VM market offering all kinds of MR services to customers, will be really viable in the first decades of the 21st Century.

MM service and information providers need to prepare themselves today, to be ready for an awakening market within 5 years, and a profitable market after about 10 years! Preparation means:

• being able to provide specific MM services to customers and suppliers;

• being able to set up and support VM services;

• preparing the organisation and information infrastructure for direct telesales and direct telemarketing;

• being able to produce, archive and retrieve MM M&S information to support all M&S processes;

• support of MM transactions and order processing, integrated logistics in service chains.

If you do not invest today, you may run the risk of being left out of the game. The same is true for information providers in relation to the VM, if they are not prepared, they run the risk of loosing service competition and, particularly relevant for information industry, information competition. Although success, when setting up MM teleshop services, is not guaranteed, potential efficiency and effectiveness gains surpass by far the costs. The first M&S organisations able to create a win-win situation with their customers, can gain tremendously. If in the coming ten years M&S organisations invest massively in MM teleshop and tele-order services, the outlets of these organisations will go through a radical change! Bulk products and commodities will be far less often sold by intermediate retail organisations and M&S personnel, and particularly in the business to business market, the growth in the use of MM tele-order services, enforced by offering discounts to tele-ordering customers, may affect significantly the size of sales staff. In the high quality/high prices market segment, however, personal sales and personal care will prevail, although one can notice that some expensive, high quality products are sold via television advertisement and telephone ordering!

In the consumer market, it is hypothesised that working people, with little spare time, are more prone to purchasing commodities using MM teleshop services than others, yet, we should not underestimate the need of people to browse physically through shopping streets, to touch and smell products using their senses, and to enjoy strolling around in the three-dimensional, REAL world!
 

© 1995-2002 Martijn Hoogeveen